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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd