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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.