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A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got something to gain from the other's positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."